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The Pause on Global Warming

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John Beagle View Drop Down
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    Posted: Oct 07 2015 at 12:03pm

Ted Cruz destroys Mr. Mair on his view and supporting evidence on 'global warming'.

“And I assume that the Sierra Club would issue a public retraction if confronted with the facts? That the data are precisely as I described. That over the last 18 years there has been no significant warming. And indeed that is why global alarmists invented the term ‘the pause’ to explain what they call the pause in global arming because the data demonstrate what you just said that the Earth is cooking and warming is not backed up by the data.”
 
“You know, Mr. Mair, I find it striking that for a policy organization that purports to focus exclusively on environmental issues, that you are not willing to tell this committee that you would issue a retraction if your testimony is objectively false under scientific data That undermines the credibility of any organization.”


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vegasmayor View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote vegasmayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct 07 2015 at 4:31pm
Whether you're a climate change alarmist or denier, one thing is for sure - you probably shouldn't put all your eggs in the basket of Ted Cruz being an expert on this topic.  The man is a politician and lawyer, no?  No offense to the postal service but I don't want my mail man doing open heart surgery on me.  In the same respect, I'd rather actual scientists educate me on climate change, not attorneys.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote basser Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct 07 2015 at 7:34pm
totally agree.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Max HC Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct 08 2015 at 1:32pm
Ted Cruz is Joseph McCarthy reincarnated. Real American.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote John Beagle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct 08 2015 at 2:24pm
I see you attacking the messenger. But what about the message?

"...global alarmists invented the term ‘the pause’ to explain what they call the pause in global arming because the data demonstrate what you just said that the Earth is cooking and warming is not backed up by the data.”


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote vegasmayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct 08 2015 at 2:44pm
Originally posted by John Beagle John Beagle wrote:

I see you attacking the messenger. But what about the message?

"...global alarmists invented the term ‘the pause’ to explain what they call the pause in global arming because the data demonstrate what you just said that the Earth is cooking and warming is not backed up by the data.”



John,

With all due respect, I think we all must first look at the messenger before even hearing the message.  If a morbidly obese man was instructing me how to lose my stubborn body fat, I'm probably going to consider the messenger before adhering to the advice.  Ted Cruz has an agenda.  You may be on board with his agenda, but it's still an agenda.  The man is a politician.  They've been known to say things they don't actually mean/understand/follow through on/believe/etc.  I would encourage everyone here to Google "global warming pause" and read some articles published by actual scientists, experts in this field.  THEN make a decision how you feel.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote John Beagle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct 08 2015 at 2:54pm
What is Ted's agenda? How is he different than say Carla?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote vegasmayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct 08 2015 at 3:35pm
Oh I do not claim to know Ted's agenda.  Nor do I care, honestly.  But if you truly believe he doesn't have an agenda, I have a bridge I'd love to sell you.  These people are not expert scientists.  They are not expert economists.  They are not expert military strategists.  So forgive me for tuning out when they begin telling me what I need to believe about subjects they pretend to be experts about.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote John Beagle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct 08 2015 at 4:33pm
The myth of an almost-unanimous climate-change consensus is pervasive. Last May, the White House tweeted: “Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #climate change is real, man-made and dangerous.” A few days later, Secretary of State John Kerry announced, “Ninety-seven percent of the world’s scientists tell us this is urgent.” “Ninety-seven percent of the world’s scientists” say no such thing. There are multiple relevant questions: (1) Has the earth generally warmed since 1800? (An overwhelming majority of scientists assent to this.) (2) Has that warming been caused primarily by human activity? And, if (1) and (2), is anthropogenic global warming a problem so significant that we ought to take action?

In 2004, University of California-San Diego professor Naomi Oreskes reported that, of 928 scientific abstracts from papers published by refereed scientific journals between 1993 and 2003, “75% . . . either explicitly or implicitly accept[ed] the consensus view; 25% dealt with methods or paleoclimate, taking no position on current anthropogenic climate change. Remarkably, none of the papers disagreed with the consensus position.” Also remarkably, the papers chosen excluded several written by prominent scientists skeptical of that consensus. Furthermore, the claims made in abstracts — short summaries of academic papers — often differ from those made in the papers themselves. And Oreskes’s analysis did not take up whether scientists who subscribe to anthropogenic global warming think the phenomenon merits changes in public policy.

The “97 percent” statistic first appeared prominently in a 2009 study by University of Illinois master’s student Kendall Zimmerman and her adviser, Peter Doran. Based on a two-question online survey, Zimmerman and Doran concluded that “the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific bases of long-term climate processes” — even though only 5 percent of respondents, or about 160 scientists, were climate scientists. In fact, the “97 percent” statistic was drawn from an even smaller subset: the 79 respondents who were both self-reported climate scientists and had “published more than 50% of their recent peer-reviewed papers on the subject of climate change.” These 77 scientists agreed that global temperatures had generally risen since 1800, and that human activity is a “significant contributing factor.” A year later, William R. Love Anderegg, a student at Stanford University, used Google Scholar to determine that “97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field surveyed here support the tenets of ACC [anthropogenic climate change] outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.” The sample size did not much improve on Zimmerman and Doran’s: Anderegg surveyed about 200 scientists.

Surely the most suspicious “97 percent” study was conducted in 2013 by Australian scientist John Cook — author of the 2011 book Climate Change Denial: Heads in the Sand and creator of the blog Skeptical Science (subtitle: “Getting skeptical about global warming skepticism.”). In an analysis of 12,000 abstracts, he found “a 97% consensus among papers taking a position on the cause of global warming in the peer-reviewed literature that humans are responsible.” “Among papers taking a position” is a significant qualifier: Only 34 percent of the papers Cook examined expressed any opinion about anthropogenic climate change at all. Since 33 percent appeared to endorse anthropogenic climate change, he divided 33 by 34 and — voilà — 97 percent! When David Legates, a University of Delaware professor who formerly headed the university’s Center for Climatic Research, recreated Cook’s study, he found that “only 41 papers — 0.3 percent of all 11,944 abstracts or 1.0 percent of the 4,014 expressing an opinion, and not 97.1 percent,” endorsed what Cook claimed. Several scientists whose papers were included in Cook’s initial sample also protested that they had been misinterpreted. “Significant questions about anthropogenic influences on climate remain,” Legates concluded.

Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/425232/climate-change-no-its-not-97-percent-consensus-ian-tuttle
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote John Beagle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct 08 2015 at 4:35pm
Originally posted by vegasmayor vegasmayor wrote:

Oh I do not claim to know Ted's agenda.  Nor do I care, honestly.  But if you truly believe he doesn't have an agenda, I have a bridge I'd love to sell you.  These people are not expert scientists.  They are not expert economists.  They are not expert military strategists.  So forgive me for tuning out when they begin telling me what I need to believe about subjects they pretend to be experts about.

Of course he has an agenda. So do I and so do you. But I don't bad mouth an agenda when I don't really know what it is. 

Now lets talk about Hillary's agenda.....Big smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote vegasmayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct 09 2015 at 8:21am
Of course we all have an agenda.  And don't even get me started on Hillary and her agenda.  The difference is that I have no interest in trying to force my agenda on others.  And I'm looking back at my posts trying to see when I was bad mouthing Ted Cruz's agenda.  Maybe you can point out when I did.  

My whole point was to encourage everyone here to be students.  If climate change is a topic you're interested in, then study the heck out of it.  But, for the love of God, don't get your climate change information from a career politician.  And quoting the National Review on climate change is akin to the same thing.  It's like asking someone on the far left for information on the NRA.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote John Beagle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct 09 2015 at 9:04am
"or the love of God, don't get your climate change information from a career politician."

-or the Sierra Club.....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote vegasmayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct 09 2015 at 9:42am
I would agree that the Sierra Club have entered into the political arena and definitely push their progressive views.  On the flip side, I also recognize that the Sierra Club has existed for almost three of Ted Cruz's lifetimes and are solely devoted to earth preservation.  Now, if the Sierra Club tried to advise Ted Cruz on issues of law or politics we would surely call them out and question their knowledge of such subjects.  

By the way, when did preservation of the earth become such taboo topic with CONSERVatives?  "Green" initiatives always seem to be met with such skepticism and criticism.  It boggles my mind that we always have to fight about protecting and preserving our resources.  Long term, big picture thinking is never a bad thing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote John Beagle Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct 09 2015 at 1:09pm
"By the way, when did preservation of the earth become such taboo topic with CONSERVatives?"

Who said it was taboo? 

I hope you don't expect me to represent all conservative viewpoints. I am an independent who leans toward Libertarian and center right views. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote vegasmayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Oct 09 2015 at 2:36pm
I wasn't necessarily asking you, specifically, John.  Just a general curiosity.  And maybe taboo isn't the best word to use.  Point of contention? Much of my life is spent around moderate to ultra conservatives.  Trust me, this topic is a hot button for them.  Which also seems to contradict other aspects of their lifestyle, but I digress.  
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